ALERTAS PARA O RIO DE JANEIRO E MINAS GERAIS

"Se há boletins de alertas, não só do SOMAR METEOROLOGIA, mas também do NOOA que é a maior referência mundial no assunto, IMEDIATAMENTE os governos municipais, estaduais e federal junto à imprensa brasileira, deveriam anunciar para que os cidadãos destas regiões tivessem os devidos cuidados."

Não falo de evacuação, mas sim um alerta para embarcações, banhistas e todos que estão próximos ao mar.
Da mesma maneira ocorreu com a região serrana (CLIQUE AQUI para ver a notificação enviada a Teresópolis) e as autoridades não deram a devida atenção às notificações de alerta que receberam com ANTECEDÊNCIA, e todos sabemos no que deu.
Segue abaixo o alerta do NOOA:

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1244 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/


SPECIAL STATEMENT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF RIO DE JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO

THROUGH SUNDAY-MONDAY. THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-BRAZILIAN
NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF

METEOROLOGY (INMET)...WILL ISSUE THE NECESSARY ADVISORIES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS

ACROSS MINAS GERAIS-RIO DE JANEIRO AND ESPIRITO SANTO.

Aviso especial... os modelos da NOAA continuam mostrar risco de ciclogênese com centro aquecido ao longo da costa do Rio de Janeiro/Espírito Santo de domingo à segunda. O Centro Hidrográfico Naval da Marinha Brasileira (SMM).... em coordenação com o Instituto de Meteorologia (INMET)... irão divulgar os avisos necessários. Este sistema tem o potencial de produzir quantidades excessivas de preciptação pluviométrico ao longo dos estados do Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais e Espírito Santo.
MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00UTC MAR 11): THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TO FAVOR WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF ESPIRITO
SANTO. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT/

EVOLUTION...WHILE THE UKMET PROJECTS A SLOWER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER
SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP/INTENSE AS THE GFS PROJECTS AND SOMEWHAT
CLOSER TO THE UKMET. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT

AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAST IT IS GOING TO PULL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS MOVING AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE
GFS. THIS IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 60/72
HRS...AND HEAVY RAINS MIGHT LAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY

ESTIMATED.

OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 105W TO 70S. THROUGH 60-72 HRS IT WILL
RELOCATE TO THE SOUTHERN CONE/DRAKE PASSAGE-ANTARCTIC PENINSULA.
BY 108-132 HRS IT IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF

50S...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FEEDING COLD/POLAR
ENERGY INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ANTARCTIC
PENINSULA-SOUTHERN CONE. THROUGH 60-72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST

TO SLOWLY PULL EAST INTO THE WEDDELL SEA-WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS
TO THEN SPLIT THROUGH 84-96 HRS...SHEARING A TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM THAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW BETWEEN THE
MALVINAS/FALKLAND AND THE SOUTH GEORGIA ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS IT

SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA-SOUTHERN
CONE...WITH A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC-LA PAMPA
IN ARGENTINA-CENTRAL CHILE. THROUGH 48 HRS...AS A POLAR RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA...THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE

ACROSS RIO DE LA PLATA/URUGUAY-CORDOBA/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET (PAMPERO)...A
PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT IS
TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PROVINCES OF ARGENTINA.

BY 72-84 HRS THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
BRASIL-PARAGUAY...TO CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH TO SAO PAULO-MATO
GROSSO DO SUL IN BRASIL BY 108-120 HRS. ACROSS CENTRAL
ARGENTINA...UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...THERE IS MODERATE RISK

OF SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON DAY 02 AS THE SQUALL LINE
AFFECTS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA. RAINFALL MAXIMA ON DAY 01 WILL PEAK
AT 25-50MM/DAY. ON DAY 02...ACTIVITY WILL SPLIT...WITH MAXIMA OF

25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA AND 20-45MM/DAY ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA BASIN/URUGUAY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS SOUTHERN BRASIL
THIS WILL DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...THE BUILDING
POLAR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SUSTAIN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET

ACROSS CHACO ARGENTINO TO EASTERN BOLIVIA. THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRIGGER A SQUALL LINE AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIKELY
DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.


THE MODELS THEN AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...TO MOVE ALONG 80W/85W BY 72-84 HRS. AS IT
CLASHES WITH BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST...THE TROUGH WILL
SPLIT...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TO

MEANDER OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CHILE. MODELS THEN SHOW THIS
TROUGH SPILLING ACROSS THE ANDES TO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARGENTINA
LATER IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.


NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL AND SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGES. AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BOUND BETWEEN 20S-05S...AS IT IS TO CENTER
ON HIGHS THAT MEANDER BETWEEN BOLIVIA AND BRASIL. THE

SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO EXTEND BETWEEN 05S-20N...WITH MEAN AXIS
WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG
05N/07N. A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT SEPARATES THESE
RIDGES...FAVORING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONTINENT

TO THE NORTH OF 07S. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
EXPECTING FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS PARA TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL WHILE EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE
GUIANAS. DAILY MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS FORECAST TO

PEAK AT 35-70MM.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE POLAR TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS CYCLE...THE SOUTH ATLANTIC HIGH/RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN. THROUGH 36-48 HRS MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENING
WHILE SLOWLY PULLING TO THE EAST-SOUTH EAST. AS THE RIDGE

WEAKENS...MODELS THEN FORECAST A LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF
BRASIL TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LOW EAST OF

VITORIA/RIO DE JANEIRO TO ANCHOR THIS AXIS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER
WARM WATERS OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW

POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE.
THROUGH 72-84 HRS THE SYSTEM IS TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY...TO SUSTAIN

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES OF
BRASIL. THIS WILL LEAD TO TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION

ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND EASTERN MINAS GERAIS.
THROUGH 36 HRS THE DAILY MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 50-75MM/DAY...

AND BY 48-96 HRS THIS COULD INCREASE TO 150-250MM/DAY AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED. LATER ON DAY 04

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE TO 30-60MM/DAY WHILE SYSTEM SLOWLY
PULLS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.


Sob a influência de uma área alongada de baixa pressão atmosférica polar entrando no Atlântico Sul precocemente neste ciclo,.... a área de alta pressão do Atlântico Sul deverá enfraquecer. Os modelos das próximas 36-48 hs mostram o enfraquecimento do padrão de alta pressão simultaneamente com uma diminuição do deslocamento leste-sudeste. À medida em que a área de alta enfraquecer, os modelos prevêem então uma faixa de baixa pressão ficando mais bem organizada ao longo da costa do Brasil... os modelos continuam a mostrar a possibilidade do sistema se desenvolver em um ciclone com centro aquecido. Nas próximas 72-84 hs, o sistema irá se intensificar, sustentando fortes ventos na camada-limite (camada imaginária onde o regime de escoamento dos ventos passa de laminar para turbulento) nos estados do sudeste do Brasil. Isso levará à convecção induzida topograficamente ao longo do Rio de Janeiro - Espírito Santo e Leste de Minas Gerais. Durante 36 horas a máxima diária irá aumentar para 50-75 mm de precipitação e entre 48-96 hr esta máxima pode subir para 150-250 mm/d de preciptação à medida em que o ciclone se tornar mais ativo e bem organizado. Mais adiante no 4o. dia espera-se que a atividade diminua para 30-60 mm/d enquanto o sistema vagarosamente se move para leste-sudeste. Enviado por Martius de Oliveira
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